After a stretch of disappointing booking trends, the ocean freight market is accelerating and quickly. The short-term dive in demand that had carriers offering capacity at bay reversed itself almost overnight. This snap reversal follows the Trump administration’s 90-day tariff reprieve on new China tariffs, an action that has readjusted volume patterns and spurred frenzied booking activity. Space is tight, rates are increasing, and uncertainty once again is the name of the game in the logistics community.
We at Gemini Shippers Association are keeping close tabs on these developments so that our members remain ahead of the curve. Through development in rate tools, allocation tracking, and key industry connections, our goal is to un-complicate complex freight matters so you can focus on business development.
Here’s what you need to know now and how to respond strategically.
The Tariff Pause That Sparked a Booking Surge
The short-term reprieve in China tariffs prompted a wave of preemptive bookings, particularly on the East Coast. Carriers filed GRIs at $4,000 or more, though most are releasing. Straight-up rate increases landed within the $1,000–$2,000 range, but even the effort at higher rate numbers indicates how hard carriers are trying to capitalize on post-announcement volumes.
Don’t pursue the high point—tie your pricing. With an uncertain market, locking into exaggerated premiums could become bitter if rate trends mellow further down the summer.
Tight Capacity: A Market Outpacing Projections
Carriers have cancelled numerous blank sailings and substituted them with additional loaders. These ships were booked up fast, but carrier performance is still uneven. Some sent smaller vessels than anticipated, while others are avoiding inland connections altogether.
China-origin volumes increased twice week-over-week, and many BCOs were left scrambling to find space they had thought was pre-booked. Even confirmed bookings were and are being rolled unexpectedly in some instances.
This sudden leap in bookings has caught many off guard, especially those whose assumptions rely on traditional peak-season models.
Space Wars: When “Confirmed” Isn’t Secure
Rollover bookings are stacking up. Even if shippers are ready and compliant, cargo is getting rolled due to overbooked vessels. This hurts most for volume BCOs who ship in larger bulk shipments. Fragmenting bookings into bite-sized bits may boost opportunities for lift and reduce rejection risk.
Strategic advice: Treat each booking as a project. Assign team ownership, track milestones, and verify each container move to avoid eleventh-hour surprises
How BCOs Can Stay Responsive in a Constricted Market
To survive the next few months, Gemini recommends an anticipatory, multi-faceted strategy:
- Diversify Port Strategy: Regional congestion, especially at East Coast ports, is still a problem. If your preferred port is congested, have options on the circuit and factor in inland drayage possibilities.
- Track Every Booking: Visibility is key. The distinction between an on-time delivery and a costly delay more often than not boils down to day-to-day follow-ups and transparent documentation.
- Reserve Space Ahead: Don’t wait for spot rates to stabilize. Maintain booking consistency to lock in space prior to Q3 pressure mounting.
- Dissect Large Shipments: Dissect large bookings. Smaller, traceable loads will be more likely to get lifted and less likely to get deprioritized.
- Watch Out for Rate Stabilization: GRIs are currently in effect, but not all are holding. Don’t panic-book on inflated premiums.
What This Means for Peak Season 2025
The bigger issue is whether this surge of demand will persist through traditional peak season or will it evaporate once the tariff stand-down is over. In the meantime, the indicators are for continuing capacity pressure at least into mid-July. But with rate volatility still the pot shot in play, clever logistics groups are hedging their bets on all possible eventualities.
If this booking trend continues, Q3 will be one of the busiest on record. If it evaporates, rates will even out, but not before many shippers have shelled out premiums.
How Gemini Shippers Association Helps
As a not-for-profit cooperative, Gemini Shippers Association represents members in negotiating aggregated volume ocean freight contracts, streamlining the booking process, and providing transparency and control tools. With knowledge of accurate rate analytics, carrier performance, and flexible book strategies, members can make faster, smarter freight decisions in today’s uncertain climate.
Learn about our process and membership benefits.
Proactivity Pays Off in a Volatile Market
Supply chain uncertainty is no longer the norm; it’s the new normal. The most recent snap from soft demand to constrained capacity demonstrates how rapidly the landscape can change. Success or disruption for BCOs come down to responsiveness, visibility, and strategic partnerships.
As the industry heads into summer, remain informed, remain nimble, and let Gemini Shippers Association empower you to transform complexity into opportunity.
