If 2025 taught us anything, it’s that certainty is still the rarest commodity in global logistics. Entering 2026, shippers aren’t just planning for cost, they’re planning for confidence. Ken O’Brien, President & CEO of Gemini Shippers Association, notes that time and confidence have become as influential as the rate itself, with the most forward-looking shippers shifting from a “price per container” mindset to one centered on predictability per container.
That shift reflects a broader reality: 2026 won’t be defined by a single disruptor, but by how well importers prepare for a range of possibilities. With that in mind, here are five key questions that will shape how supply chain leaders position themselves for the new year.
1. How should tariff volatility influence your 2026 supply chain planning and sourcing?
Tariff conversations are once again picking up speed, and shippers can expect policy fluctuations well into the new year. These changes influence sourcing decisions, cost structures, and purchase order timing, often with very little advance notice.
In 2026, the key question isn’t just what tariffs might be, but how quickly your supply chain can adjust if they move by 5–10% or more. Importers with flexible sourcing strategies and faster decision-making processes will be better positioned to absorb policy fluctuations without destabilizing their networks.
2. What does increased global capacity really mean for your network?
More tonnage is entering the market, but added capacity doesn’t automatically translate to smoother sailing. Extended routings via the Cape of Good Hope, uncertainty around the Houthi cease-fire, and localized congestion continue to challenge schedule reliability.
Network volatility (not just cost) is the challenge ahead. So, for 2026 supply chain planning, that means evaluating not only where capacity exists on paper, but where networks may struggle to deliver consistent performance. The contracts that matter most this year are the ones that protect service commitments, not just rates.
3. How will demand drivers such as holidays, inflation, and tariffs, shape your first half of 2026?
Retailers are entering the new year with right-sized inventories and cautious optimism. As Ken noted in his Retail Today analysis, retail sales are projected to grow 2.7%–3.7% in 2025 (a slower pace than last year), but demand could still move in either direction. Stronger-than-expected holiday performance would trigger faster restocking in December and early January, while softer demand would reinforce the conservative inventory strategies many importers maintained throughout 2025.
Still, inflation remains a variable, and tariff headlines continue to influence consumer confidence. All of this will shape how aggressively importers need to replenish in Q1 and how much flexibility they should build into their 2026 supply chain strategy.
4. How does a later Lunar New Year shift your replenishment strategy?
Lunar New Year 2026 falls on February 17, significantly later than usual. Factory slowdowns will begin weeks beforehand, tightening the production window and shifting the restock calendar for importers.
A later holiday creates both opportunity and risk. There is more time to move early-season cargo, but a much narrower runway for post-holiday replenishment. Importers should be assessing whether POs need to shift earlier, whether sailing schedules align with production shutdowns, and how quickly their networks can rebound once factories resume.
If holiday demand surprises to the upside, these timing constraints could collide with Q1 capacity limitations, one of the sleeper challenges of early 2026.
5. Which indicators will help shippers read the direction of 2026?
A few early signals will carry outsized importance this year: inventories-to-sales ratios, carrier schedule reliability, discretionary spend patterns, and tariff activity.
The margin for error is thin. Networks that can adjust quickly, rather than reactively, will outperform. Importers who monitor these indicators closely and model multiple outcomes will gain the confidence to act decisively as conditions evolve.
Predictability is the new premium in 2026
The year ahead will reward shippers who build networks that can flex, absorb disruption, and maintain consistency even when conditions shift. The real advantage now lies in how predictable your supply chain can be across rates, service, and decision-making.
So, the question is: How prepared is your network to deliver that consistency in 2026?
Gemini Shippers Association is here to help BCO’s answer that with confidence. From one-on-one consultation and competitive contract negotiation to stable long-term rates, member-specific support, and the industry resources you need to make informed decisions, our team helps importers move from uncertainty to clarity. If you’re ready to strengthen your network for 2026, we’re ready to support you every step of the way.
